I would say a small they run very true to size as my 4 year old girl fit in the xs nicely.
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Here is the NOW IPO next to the Flux TT30 you can see how much more padding the IPO has over the TT30.
I love these bindings they are amazing for deep pow runs on my NS Heritage 158 with no high back. My boots are a K2 UFO so they are kind of stiff to start with but with the soft bushings and high back less it was like surfing in the snow. The binding does take some getting used to at first about a run or to till you get the feel of what it applies power to the edge. To me it feel like the ultimate gas pedal front and rear for those dynamic turns. Like the other review said if you have a size 10 boot you are kind of SOL for sizing as you are right in the middle of M and L. If you boot has any shrinkage tech in it get the M and you will be happy. I also rode this binding on my Blacklist while in the park and was surprised how well they preformed. On several jumps I cleared most of the transition areas and land almost flat, the foam on the base just soaked it up like a sponge. An awesome binding that I can?t wait will they come out with the new big high back and low wing back for 13/14.